INSACERMO First Alert

Detect the early signs of a regime change.

INSACERMO observes when a series begins to leave its usual regime before a visible peak appears.
The tool does not directly predict the event. It measures a deformation of present behavior from the recent memory of the signal.

Detailed method available on private request Local browser computation Causal rupture score Historical rarity levels
Principle

Regime entry

A system does not always shift all at once. Before some peaks, its behavior is already starting to change. INSACERMO looks for that transition phase.

Signal memory

Older memory / recent memory

The tool compares what the signal has just done with what it was doing just before. It does not look into the future to compute an alert.

Rupture score

Measurable rupture

When the gap between two past regimes becomes rare relative to history, INSACERMO signals a possible entry into regime change.

Time-series CSV

Paste or load a raw time series. The tool detects a time column and a value column, then computes alerts locally.

These examples are not decorative: they are recomputed locally from real data. The detailed protocol is available only under private review.

Local data only. Load a raw series, not an already summarized output CSV such as events, alerts ou summary_by_W. This public version exposes the general principle and the results. Full protocol details are not displayed in the interface.

First Alert result

signal event q95 alert rupture score

Green curve : regime rupture score. Red points : events / detected peaks. Orange lines Orange lines: first q95 alerts. The earlier they appear before red points, the earlier the regime entry. Orange zones = detected regime entry.

Load a CSV or the built-in example, then run the analysis.
-Points
-Events
-Best window
-Final class
Simple reading: choose an example or load a CSV.

Median lead time : shows how long before peaks the first q95 alert generally appears. B_STRONG does not mean certain prediction: it means several events were preceded by a rare and measurable rupture.

Summary by W window

No result yet.

Detected events

No result yet.

Alerts by event

No result yet.

Public result benchmarks

Heavy rain Rennes : B_STRONG, 29/32 q95 alerts, ~98 h before.

PM2.5 Rennes : B_STRONG, 11/15 q95 alerts, ~98 h before.

Wikipedia : collective signal detected on 6 pages.

Limits: COVID and Dengue remain partial.